Post-Saddam Iraq: The War Game

Post-Saddam Iraq: The War Game: "In late April 1999, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), led by Marine General Anthony Zinni (ret.), conducted a series of war games known as Desert Crossing in order to assess potential outcomes of an invasion of Iraq aimed at unseating Saddam Hussein. The documents posted here today covered the initial pre-war game planning phase from April-May 1999 through the detailed after-action reporting of June and July 1999.

...

The results of Desert Crossing, however, drew pessimistic conclusions regarding the immediate possible outcomes of such action. Some of these conclusions are interestingly similar to the events which actually occurred after Saddam was overthrown. (Note 1) The report forewarned that regime change may cause regional instability by opening the doors to "rival forces bidding for power" which, in turn, could cause societal "fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines" and antagonize "aggressive neighbors." Further, the report illuminated worries that secure borders and a restoration of civil order may not be enough to stabilize Iraq if the replacement government were perceived as weak, subservient to outside powers, or out of touch with other regional governments. An exit strategy, the report said, would also be complicated by differing visions for a post-Saddam Iraq among those involved in the conflict.

The Desert Crossing report was similarly pessimistic when discussing the nature of a new Iraqi government. If the U.S. were to establish a transitional government, it would likely encounter difficulty, some groups discussed, from a "period of widespread bloodshed in which various factions seek to eliminate their enemies." The report stressed that the creation of a democratic government in Iraq was not feasible, but a new pluralistic Iraqi government which included nationalist leaders might be possible, suggesting that nationalist leaders were a stabilizing force. Moreover, the report suggested that the U.S. role be one in which it would assist Middle Eastern governments in creating the transitional government for Iraq."

(Via The National Security Archives.)

NORK Nuke Missile?

NORK Nuke Missile?: "So, my initial speculation about the cause of failure for North Korea’s nuclear test—remember that I thought the NORKS tried to reduce the size of the warhead with fancy implosion techniques—seems to have gained some credibility. (See So, Like, Why Didn’t It Work?, October 10, 2006)

Andrew Koch called my hypothesis “the most popular working assumption inside the U.S. intelligence community at the moment” which, you know, is kind of cool."

(Via ArmsControlWonk.com.)

Darfur militias 'kill children'

Darfur militias 'kill children': "Militias backing Sudan's government have killed at least 63 people in attacks in Darfur in the past week, African peacekeepers say.

At least 27 of the victims are thought to be children under the age of 12.

The attacks were carried on camps for the displaced in the rebel stronghold of Jebel Moon, in West Darfur.

The government says it is disarming the Janjaweed militia but a BBC correspondent in Sudan says all the evidence points to the exact opposite."

(Via BBC News.)

Evangelist Admits Meth, Massage, No Sex

Evangelist Admits Meth, Massage, No Sex: "Evangelist Ted Haggard admitted Friday that he bought methamphetamine and received a massage from a gay prostitute who claims he was paid for drug-fueled trysts by the outspoken gay marriage opponent.

Haggard resigned Thursday as president of the National Association of Evangelicals and stepped down as leader of his Colorado megachurch while the two groups investigate the allegations."

(Via Google News.)

Hamas in the New York Times

Hamas in the New York Times: "On Wednesday, the New York Times ran an op-ed by Ahmed Yousef, titled “Pause for Peace,” in which Yousef calls for a “hudna,” (which he describes as a “long term truce”) between Israel and the Palestinians. The Times identifies Yousef only as “a senior adviser to the Palestinian prime minister, Ismail Haniya.”

Yousef is actually ideally situated to be Haniya’s senior advisor, specifically to attempt to bring Hamas’ message to a Western audience, as Yousef himself spent many years in America as the head of a Hamas front group"

(Via The Counterterrorism Blog.)

Republicans Court the Bigot Vote

Republicans Court the Bigot Vote: "Ah, autumn -- a brisk snap in the air, the deep hues of trees changing colors ...and Republicans telling you that black men are coming to have sex with your daughters.

All right, that isn't completely accurate. Black men are coming to have sex with your daughters, Republicans warn, but gays are also going to turn you into one of them, and if we don't act soon the halls of power will be crawling with sex perverts.

We've all heard about the ad directed against Senate candidate Harold Ford in Tennessee, in which a ditzy young woman squeals, "I met Harold Ford at the Playboy party!" and closes the ad with, "Harold, call me!" -- and you know what they'll be doing if he does. But that isn't even the most racist ad that has been aired in that state, nor is the one that features thumping jungle drums every time Ford's name is mentioned.

...

Ford's opponent, Bob Corker, condemned that ad, as he did the "Call me!" ad (which was produced by the national Republican Party). But there are lots of Republicans in Tennessee who want to make extra sure that voters know that Harold Ford is black, black, black. Faced with a dynamic, skilled candidate in Ford and a mediocre one of their own in Corker, combined with a national mood decidedly unfavorable to Republicans, the GOP decided to hitch its wagon one more time to the bigot vote."

(Via AlterNet.)

Red cross confirmes ethnic cleansing in Kagera, Tanzania

Red cross confirmes ethnic cleansing in Kagera, Tanzania: "Evidance of the serious human right abuse in Kagera, Tanzania, is accumulating! But there are still no reports from independent observer inside Kagera. Lorries now pick people from their homes during nighttime. My impression is that too many "follow the situation from a distance", not realizing that there are already enough evidance for immediate observation on site!"

(Via Hans Rosling.)

Money trails lead to Bush judges

Money trails lead to Bush judges: "At least two dozen federal judges appointed by President Bush since 2001 made political contributions to key Republicans or to the president himself while under consideration for their judgeships, government records show. A four-month investigation of Bush-appointed judges by the Center for Investigative Reporting reveals that six appellate court judges and 18 district court judges contributed a total of more than $44,000 to politicians who were influential in their appointments. Some gave money directly to Bush after he officially nominated them. Other judges contributed to Republican campaign committees while they were under consideration for a judgeship.

Republicans who received money from judges en route to the bench include Sens. Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Sens. George Voinovich and Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Gov. George Pataki of New York."

(Via Salon.)

Surveillance as Performance Art

Surveillance as Performance Art: "Hasan Elahi has been making his every movement public, after being detained by the FBI (and then cleared) when entering the country:

For the next few months, every trip Elahi took, he’d call his FBI agent and give the routing, so he didn’t get detained along the way. He realized, after a point -- why just tell the FBI -- why not tell everyone?

So he hacked his cellphone into a tracking bracelet which he wears on his ankle, reporting his movements on a map -- log onto his site and you can see that he’s in Camden. But he’s gone further, trying to document his life in a series of photos: the airports he passes through, the meals he eats, the bathrooms he uses. The result is a photographic record of his daily life which would be very hard to falsify. We all know photos can be digitally altered... but altering as many photos as Elahi puts online would require a whole team trying to build this alternative path through the world. "

(Via Schneier on Security.)

Tackling Global Warming Cheaper Than Ignoring It

Tackling Global Warming Cheaper Than Ignoring It: "'In a report commissioned by the UK government, respected economist Sir Nicholas Stern concludes that mitigating global warming could cost around 1% of global GDP if spent immediately, but ignoring the problem could cost between 5% and 20% of global GDP. The 700-page study represents the first major report on climate change from an economist rather than a scientist. The report calls for the introduction of green taxes and carbon trading schemes as soon as possible, and calls on the international community to sign a new pact on greenhouse emissions by next year rather than in 2010/11. At the very least the UK government is taking the report seriously; both major parties are proposing new green taxes. Stern points out, however, that any action will only be effective if truly global.'"

(Via /.)

The Torture Election

The Torture Election: "The Congressional campaign of 2006 slouches toward election day through a grotesque landscape of torture and excuses for torture, scabrous messages from a Congressman to young boys, a Congressional cover-up of the same, murder and countermurder every day in Iraq (a heart-stopping 655,000 Iraqis have died since the invasion, according to a Johns Hopkins study), and nuclear fallout from North Korea (of the political if not the literal kind).

The stakes, as President Bush likes to say--and on this point he is correct--could scarcely be higher. But they include one stake he never mentions: the future of constitutional government in the United States, which his presidency and his party have put in serious jeopardy. The old (lower case) republican system of checks and balances and popular liberties, you might say, is in danger of replacement by a new (upper case) Republican system of arbitrary one-party rule organized around an all-powerful presidency. That many-sided danger, of course, is the subject of this series of articles. It is simply impossible to know in advance when, in a great constitutional crisis, the decisive turning point--the irrevocable capsizing--might come. We are left wondering whether we are witnessing just one more swing of the familiar old American political "pendulum," bound by its own weight to swing back in the opposite direction, or whether this time the pendulum is about to fly off its hinge and land us with a crash in territory that we have never visited before. There are strong arguments on both sides of the question. Yet there can be little doubt that the election on November 7 will be an event of the first importance in the story. If, by handing one or both houses of Congress to the Democrats--something that current polls say is likely--the public breaks the Republican Party's current monopoly on government power, an important beachhead of resistance will have been gained. But if the public assents to the status quo--confirming and deepening the ratification of Republican one-party rule already conferred in 2002 and 2004 (we cannot count the election of 2000, since Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote that year), it will be hard to see where the path away from the precipice lies."

(Via The Nation.)