Thursday, April 14, 2005

Don't Say He Didn't Warn You by Gary North:

"I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force.

This is an important prediction. A financial crisis, unlike a policy change, is not debated publicly. It hits without warning.

There is a wide area of agreement among establishment economists about a textbook pretty picture: China and other continental Asian economies should permit and encourage a substantial exchange rate appreciation against the dollar. Japan and Europe should work promptly and aggressively toward domestic stimulus and deal more effectively and speedily with structural obstacles to growth. And the United States, by some combination of measures, should forcibly increase its rate of internal saving, thereby reducing its import demand.

The fact that he would refer to 'establishment economists' is revealing. This is the terminology of a dissenter. But Volcker is not an obscure newsletter writer. At one point, he was the most powerful economic decision-maker on earth."

(Via Lew Rockwell.)